I'm sure one person watching David Cameron's dismal performance with Andrew Marr this morning was Peter Mandelson. New Labour's election play book will have been largely written.
Lord Snooty, got himself into real trouble on two important policy issues.
First there was that old Tory neuralgic problem with the EU. You don't have to read many of the Tory blogs and discussion groups to realise that their default position is to withdraw from the Union. Fine, but that cannot be Cameron's position. But for the time being, the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is a substitute. Most Tories, and this number will certainly be bolstered by the 2010 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates, want a referendum. But the problem is that if the Treaty has been ratified by the time of the election, that's it. End of story. It would be difficult to see how that process could be reversed without the UK becoming, once again, the wrecking ball of the EU. The idea of then "repatriating powers" requiring agreement of the 26 states who have walked over hot coals to get the Treaty is, I'm afraid, fanciful. If the treaty is ratified, as it almost certainly will be, the Tory flock, will not get their referendum. Cameron knows, even if there is a 90% no vote in a post ratification referendum, it will not affect the Treaty. I suspect he's keeping his fingers crossed for a delay in the Czech Republic's Constitutional court's hearing. A delay that is unlikely to occur. The other 26 states will simply not allow it. The pressure on Czech president Vaclav Klaus will be immense. The Czech parliament has already ratified the Treaty and the Constitutional Court in Prague has already rejected previous similar complaints. If there were to be no post-ratification referendum the effect on the Tory party would be seismic!
Number two problem.
Marr asked about the effect of the Tory public spending cuts would have on unemployment. How many will lose their jobs? Now I suspect that most Tory voters think that the public service is too bloated. Too many pen pushers.They should be taken off the payroll. OK, but this will add to the dole queues. There will be a cost. Yet Cameron, seeing the trap open up, danced around the question. And this is a party who propose to take many of the really well off out of Inheritance Tax. This links to Cameron's other problem. Not strictly a policy one. More a difficulty in Tory tone.
Marr asked about the Cameron family wealth. You are really out of touch, he suggested. How can you understand those who your policies will put our of work? Nothing wrong with a thin layer of class politics is there?
And the same wealth question is going to be asked of Lord Snooty's Bullingdon Club pals.
Bullingdon Club
Don't get me wrong, I still think Labour are going to be defeated next year. But there is now a real question. Will the Tories win by enough to be able to form a government? That is what is now in play.
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